Don't just think, ponder.
The Minted Minutes vol. 2
Weekly Thoughts
Second-Order Thinking
Lately, I have become fascinated by the idea of second-order thinking. I forget when I initially saw someone mention it, but it forced me to dive deeper.
“Second-order thinking is necessary to think beyond what we know, things we haven’t thought about by applying divergent information and forming new associations and connections.”
I find second-order thinking to be a good mental model for figuring out the potential weak points of decision-making. In business specifically, you are usually faced with a binary decision tree. The first solution you arrive at may be the most positive in the short term but harmful in the long term. The more you can walk yourself through the ripple effect of an immediate decision, the better you can set up the possibility for success in the future. It almost always feels that the first-order decision (while immediately gratifying) leaves you worse off in the long run and the 2nd order decision leaves you worse off in the immediate (paying off significant dividends in the long run).
Further Reading: https://www.techtello.com/second-order-thinking/
Work-board week of April 9th, 2022
Linen short sleeve button down pricing
This week, I spent a good bit of time breaking down the labor cost for the striped linen button-down shirt. It offers good insight into the cost of goods when producing garments in NYC vs. overseas, so I will share the breakdown below.
Keep in mind that this is simply the labor to produce a single shirt and that the factory in China has far more economies of scale (people that can work on one piece) than NYC.
For the factory here in NYC, the labor cost to manufacture one shirt is $180 (keeping in mind that does not include fabric-trims-etc)
The cost to manufacture one shirt in China is $55.
When it comes to pricing, it’s not hard to see why companies outsource manufacturing. Consumers have become accustomed to relatively low prices on garments due to companies like Zara and Shein having massive economies of scale over small businesses. Regardless of where a garment is produced, it feels the broad consumer consensus is that it needs to be priced within the range of Zara, etc., or the brand is “price gouging.”
I try to be mindful of this, so we make hardly any money on the items made in NYC. I want to be fair to the customer and am confident that we can grow and build in margin later as we gain economies of scale, but it’s certainly not possible when starting.
Trouser Fabric from Hong Kong - Delays
If you aren’t familiar with the sample trouser below... it’s the first pair that I began work on this past winter (the embroidery will be cleaned up in production; we just needed to get the spacing correct). We settled on doing a navy blue and a tan colorway. We sourced the required fabric from Hong Kong and were set to begin production in mid-march. Covid cases began to spike at the beginning of March in Hong Kong, causing restrictions and MASSIVE delays in shipping. At the time of writing, only the navy fabric has arrived.
Sourcing Fabric for the Jacket
I want to start by saying the success in the release of the jacket was incredible to watch. I had no expectations since I knew the piece was my most expensive to date and made in NYC (which is important to me). The community reaction was incredible, and I have begun to source new colors for a second run. I am undecided if I do the original 2 colors again (but it seems that I should since many people are looking to purchase a restock)
Sourcing new trouser fabric
This summer, I want to create a few different pairs of trousers (lightweight fabrics that can be worn in the heat and not be terribly hot or uncomfortable). Below are a few sample fabrics I am sourcing to use in different pairs of trousers. I cannot guarantee a production run in all of them (these will all be made in NYC), but I can ensure a production run in some.
Training
Took Monday completely off since we raced the Cherry Blossom 10 mile the day before.
I am back onto a PPL 5 day variant, with today (Tuesday) being the first workout in around 3 weeks where I could focus on the weight and the movement. These last 3 weeks (with the 10-mile race and the half marathon) washed out a lot of training. Stretching, injury prevention, etc. leading up to races.
04/07/2022... my first proper leg day in probably 8 weeks. My adductor Magnus or gracilis (I could not tell which) felt like they would rip in half after the 4th set... welcome back, I guess. I know I will be crazy sore tomorrow (update... I am). The upside is that I only have to run 4 miles.
Articles I found interesting this week:
Association between physical exercise and mental health in 1·2 million individuals in the USA between 2011 and 2015: a cross-sectional study
“Individuals who exercised had 1·49 (43·2%) fewer days of poor mental health in the past month than individuals who did not exercise but were otherwise matched for several physical and sociodemographic characteristics (W=7·42 × 1010, p<2·2 × 10−16). All exercise types were associated with a lower mental health burden (minimum reduction of 11·8% and maximum reduction of 22·3%) than not exercising (p<2·2 × 10−16 for all exercise types). The largest associations were seen for popular team sports (22·3% lower), cycling (21·6% lower), and aerobic and gym activities (20·1% lower), as well as durations of 45 min and frequencies of three to five times per week.”
Get Rich Slowly
DALL·E 2 is a new AI system that can create realistic images and art from a description in natural language.
See what it can do… pretty incredible
Volume 2 is in the books. I appreciate each and every one of you that take the time to read these. Cheers! - Marcus
I'm really happy that this is created. One of the more relaxing reads on my Sunday. Looking forward to more.
Always happy to see this pop up in my inbox. Excited to see summer athletic wear for women and in general.